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What is the chase theory betting system?

What is chase theory betting system
What is chase theory betting system

Chase theory betting system is used in sports betting and horse racing. Designed in 18th century France, the chase theory is one of the simplest forms of gambling. The strategy simply states that the punter must double their bet after every loss, so when the punter does eventually win, he will make back whatever they lost and more depending on the odds.

Chase theory betting system was designed for the punters that have a large bankroll and, like all betting, requires an amount of luck in order to avoid losing your stack.

Punters will always recoup their losses with the chase theory, but there are some points which you need to be aware of

Most important using the chase theory with a small amount of money isn’t the ideal betting strategy. The chase theory is designed for punters with bigger bankrolls which can handle a losing streak. Should your bankroll by $100 and you’re betting $10 in the opening race, your bankroll can only sustain a series for four straight losses.

$10 bet placed
$10 x 2 = $20
$20 x 2 = $40
$40 x 2 = $80

With four losses your bankroll ends at $80 and you will have to start the chase again, but you will end up with a net loss on your first attempt.

Punters with larger bankroll have every chance to sustain a significant losing streak, but it’s not for the faint hearted.

If you do find yourself in the middle of a losing streak then your betting levels can reach big numbers. Some punters aren’t comfortable betting big numbers on horse racing, and if that’s the case, the chase theory isn’t the betting strategy for you.

It’s important to know that chase theory punters can still make a profit despite only tipping more losers than winners. Without using a chase theory, it’s tough to break even if you’re picking more losers than winners.

Chase theory in horses - is it useful

Remember chase theory is also known as the Martingale betting system – it also happens to be one of the most risky.

There is an element of risk with all forms of gambling. Whether it be betting on baseball, horse racing or playing blackjack, but the chase theory is designed to eliminate any risk of losing over a lengthy period of time.

The chase theory betting system is more commonly used in sports betting where the result is 50/50, but horse racing punters can use the system to good effect.

Odds are a key aspect to winning when using the chase theory and it’s vital that punters know what odds to take.

It’s nearing impossible to make money using the chase theory when you’re taking odds lower than $2. In order to make back what you have lost during your losing streak, your winning bet must be at $2 or higher to at least break even. $2 will see you earn your money back and any odds higher will see you make a profit. Punters must not fall into the trap of betting on short priced favourites as this is the biggest mistake you could make when using this system.

Punters should try and pick their spots. Using the chase theory to bet blindly isn’t suggested and it takes time to figure out which horses to target for this strategy.

Some punters have had success using the chase theory on only one horse. The longer it takes a horse to win a race the longer its odds typically are, so punters using this strategy are often seen as “chasing your losses punters”, but it’s simply the chase theory in work if you’re sticking with the formula.

When using chase theory – never stray away from doubling your bet. The point is to make your money back with some profit after a string of bets, not after your first bet loses.

Stick with the game plan. Double your bet after a loss and when that win does come, start from scratch and do it all again.

Below is an example of how chase theory betting can return profits with a losing record.

Example 1: Punter bets $100 per race on a horses paying $2.50 for a total of 10 races

Bet 1: Winner ($150)
Bet 2: Winner ($150)
Bet 3: Loss (-$100)
Bet 4: Loss (-$100)
Bet 5: Winner ($150)
Bet 6: Loss (-$100)
Bet 7: Loss (-$100)
Bet 8: Winner ($150)
Bet 9: Loss (-$100)
Bet 10 Loss (-$100)

Example 1 punter loses six of his 10 bets and returns $0.

Example 2: Punters uses the chase system and starts off with a $25 bet

Bet 1: Winner ($62.50)
Bet 2: Winner ($62.50)
Bet 3: Loss (-$25)
Bet 4: Loss (-$50)
Bet 5: Winner ($125)
Bet 6: Loss (-$25)
Bet 7: Loss (-$50)
Bet 8: Winner ($125)
Bet 9: Loss (-$25)
Bet 10 Loss (-$50)

The downside to chase betting systems is felt when your team hits a losing streak. Most bettors simply don’t have a big enough bankroll to handle it.

Many professional bettors are opposed to chasing bets because they are often motivated by emotion rather than opportunity and logic. There’s always that stinging feeling after losing a sports bet and many bettors can’t handle it. Many bettors just want to recover their losses as soon as possible.

This approach is problematic because logic tends to go out the window. If you’re betting $50 per game but then need to recover $200 in losses, you might find yourself wagering $400 to get it back. That wasn’t the original plan. You’re only doing it now to recover your funds, not because you wanted to place this $400 worth of bets.

Such an approach also brings into question the actual picks: were you planning to bet the second wave of games to begin with or are you merely betting them because you want to recover your money and those are the only games left on the board.

Typically, chasing bets includes emotions, large bets and shaky logic. That often leads to even more losses. That’s why so many experts are opposed to it.
The Martingale System and D’Alembert Systems both involve chasing losses, though they do not require you to focus your efforts on a single team or wager type all season long. (with inputs from various sources)

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